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国家自然科学基金(41175080)

作品数:9 被引量:63H指数:6
相关作者:唐红玉翟盘茂李锡福李蕾李栋梁更多>>
相关机构:重庆市气候中心中国气象科学研究院重庆市气象局更多>>
发文基金:国家自然科学基金中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目公益性行业(气象)科研专项更多>>
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9 条 记 录,以下是 1-9
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Validation of Daily Precipitation from Two High-Resolution Satellite Precipitation Datasets over the Tibetan Plateau and the Regions to Its East被引量:10
2012年
Daily precipitation amounts and frequencies from the CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique) and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) 3B42 precipitation products are validated against warm season in-situ precipitation observations from 2003 to 2008 over the Tibetan Plateau and the regions to its east. The results indicate that these two satellite datasets can better detect daily precipitation frequency than daily precipitation amount. The ability of CMORPH and TRMM 3B42 to accurately detect daily precipitation amount is dependent on the underlying terrain. Both datasets are more reliable over the relatively flat terrain of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, the Sichuan basin, and the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River than over the complex terrain of the Tibetan Plateau. Both satellite products are able to detect the occurrence of daily rainfall events; however, their performance is worse in regions of complex topography, such as the Tibetan Plateau. Regional distributions of precipitation amount by precipitation intensity based on TRMM 3B42 are close to those based on rain gauge data. By contrast, similar distributions based on CMORPH differ substantially. CMORPH overestimates the amount of rain associated with the most intense precipitation events over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River while underestimating the amount of rain associated with lighter precipitation events. CMORPH underestimates the amount of intense precipitation and overestimates the amount of lighter precipitation over the other analyzed regions. TRMM 3B42 underestimates the frequency of light precipitation over the Sichuan basin and the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. CMORPH overestimates the frequencies of weak and intense precipitation over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and underestimates the frequencies of moderate and heavy precipitation. CMORPH also overestimates the frequency of light precipitation and underestimates the frequency of intense precipitation over the other three
吴璐翟盘茂
西藏高原测站降水与TRMM估测降水一致性评估被引量:9
2015年
利用124个测站2011—2012年6—8月逐小时降水资料,分辨率为0.25°×0.25°的TRMM估测降水和DEM高程数据,采用相关系数、相对误差和准确性指标,分析了西藏高原TRMM估测降水整体表现能力及海拔高度对降水估测影响。结果表明:TRMM估测降水在西藏高原整体趋势较一致,降水量级偏大,次数偏多;平均无降水准确率远高于平均有降水准确率,漏测率低而空测率高,降水量大的测站TRMM估测能力相对强。西藏高原上大部分测站处于相对低洼(河谷)地带,海拔高度差较小的区域TRMM估测降水与测站降水误差小,较大的区域误差则大。
罗布坚参翟盘茂假拉吴璐赤曲次旦巴桑
关键词:TRMM
IPCC第五次评估报告反映的大气和地表的观测变化被引量:17
2014年
对气候变化事实的观测是气候变化科学研究的基础,也是IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)①的核心内容之一。AR5明确指出,自1750年以来,人类活动使得大气中二氧化碳、甲烷和氧化亚氮等温室气体的浓度增加。最近连续的3个10年比1850年以来其他的任何一个10年都要暖。对于地面观测资料覆盖较全的最长观测时期(1901—2012年),
翟盘茂李蕾
关键词:地面观测资料IPCC地表气候变化二氧化碳
Changes in Climate Regionalization Indices in China during 1961–2010被引量:6
2014年
The regionalization of climate in China is based on a three-level classification in terms of lasting days for accumulated temperature (AT),aridity index,and July mean temperature.Based on daily meteorological observational data from 756 stations,trends and interdecadal variation in indices for classifying temperature zones,moisture regions and climatic subregions in the period 1961-2010 are discussed.Results reveal that the nationwide AT ≥ 10℃C (AT10) and its lasting days are basically increasing,while aridity in northern Xinjiang is decreasing.The increasing trend of July mean temperature in North China is found to be notably larger than in South China.In terms of their national averages,a marked step increase of AT10 and its lasting period,as well as July mean temperature occurred around 1997,while the aridity index presents no such clear change.By comparing regionalization areas for 1998-2010 with those for 1961-97,it is found that the semi-humid,semi-dry and dry regions in the sub-temperate zone,as well as the humid region in the middle subtropical zone,have experienced substantial shrinkage in terms of area.In contrast,the areas of semi-dry and dry regions in the warm temperate zone,as well as the humid region in the south subtropical zone,present drastically increasing trends.Owing to the influence of such step changes that took place in 1997,that particular point in time should be given close attention in future studies regarding the regionalization of climate in China.
LIU JingZHAI Panmao
青藏高原积雪日数的空间分布及变化分析被引量:2
2016年
选用青藏高原88个气象台站1961-2007年的逐日积雪观测资料,分析了青藏高原年积雪日数的空间异常分布特征及其时间变化,并对不同季节的积雪日数变化也进行了分析.结果表明:青藏高原年的积雪日数分布在空间上具有很好的一致性,说明高原积雪的多少首先受大尺度环流背景影响的,其次也受海拔和地形及不同天气系统的影响.用REOF方法可将青藏高原积雪日数在空间上分为青海东部型,山南、藏东南型,唐古拉山型,青南高原型、青海柴达木盆地型和西藏西部型6个异常敏感分布型.从空间看,青藏高原的年积雪日数在喜马拉雅山南麓的聂拉木、亚东、错那、改则、申扎以及念青唐古拉山一带呈增多趋势,青南高原、青海海西东部及海东也有明显增加,而拉萨河谷地区、怒江和澜沧江一带及青海海西西部、海北、海南、黄南北部呈减少趋势.
李锡福唐红玉
关键词:青藏高原积雪
Impact of Urban Land-Use Change in Eastern China on the East Asian Subtropical Monsoon:A Numerical Study
2016年
The effect of urban land-use change in eastern China on the East Asian subtropical monsoon(EASTM) is investigated by using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1.Comparison of the results between the urban expansion and reference experiments shows that with the urban expansion,the land surface energy balance alters:surface net radiation and sensible heat fluxes enhance while the latent heat fluxes reduce.As a result,a significant increase in surface air temperature over eastern China is detected.The urban land-use change contributes to a change in the zonal land-sea temperature difference(LSTD),leading to a delay in the time when LSTD changes from positive to negative,and vice versa.Additionally,the onset and retreat dates of the EASTM are also delayed.Meanwhile,the rise in surface air temperature leads to formation of abnormal northerly air flows,which may be the reason for the slower northward movement of the EASTM and a more southward location of its northern boundary.
余荣江志红翟盘茂
Multi-Sliding Time Windows Based Changing Trend of Mean Temperature and Its Association with the Global-Warming Hiatus被引量:1
2016年
Based on three global annual mean surface temperature time series and three Chinese annual mean surface air temperature time series,climate change trends on multiple timescales are analyzed by using the trend estimation method of multi-sliding time windows.The results are used to discuss the so-called global-warming hiatus during 1998-2012.It is demonstrated that different beginning and end times have an obvious effect on the results of the trend estimation,and the implications are particularly large when using a short window.The global-warming hiatus during 1998-2012 is the result of viewing temperature series on short timescales;and the events similar to it,or the events with even cold tendencies,have actually occurred many times in history.Therefore,the global-warming hiatus is likely to be a periodical feature of the long-term temperature change.It mainly reflects the decadal variability of temperature,and such a phenomenon in the short term does not alter the overall warming trend in the long term.
石岩翟盘茂江志红
关键词:TIMESCALE
基于DERF2.0产品的重庆月动力延伸期预测分析及应用被引量:7
2016年
根据2015年国家气候中心实时下发的第二代月动力延伸模式(DERF2.0)逐日资料和历史回算资料,统计构建不同时间起报的月500 hPa高度场格点数据序列,针对重庆2月气温和8月降水量方差和预测难度较大的事实,分别分析2010—2014年逐年1月和7月16日、21日、26日、31日起报的2月和8月500 hPa高度场预报场与同期NCEP资料实况场的分布型。结果表明:预测效果低纬好于中高纬,8月总体好于2月;基于上述滚动的500 hPa预报场,试验了4个关键区和5种统计降尺度方法,对重庆2010—2015年2月气温和2010—2014年8月降水量进行回报预测和检验。结果表明,16日起报的模式场对2月气温有较好的参考价值,配合最好的关键区为本区上空,而降尺度方案中Lamb方法效果最佳,二者结合的预测效果最好;虽然8月降水预测效果不如2月气温,但在预测关键区取自定义关键区时,车氏方法的降尺度方案预测效果相对较好。
唐红玉董新宁周秀华覃志年
青藏高原春季积雪多、少年中低层环流对比分析被引量:11
2014年
利用青藏高原(下称高原)68个气象测站1961-2007年逐日积雪观测资料,分析了高原春季积雪日数变化及其异常偏多、偏少年的环流特征,还深入分析了春季积雪的多少对北半球夏季环流的影响。结果表明,在高原春季积雪日数偏多、少年,在500 hPa高度场上欧亚(东半球)地区中高纬度虽然均表现为两槽一脊的环流形势,但积雪日数偏多、少年槽脊的位置和强弱明显不同。同期春季,当高原春季积雪日数偏多(少)时,500 hPa环流场上冰岛低压偏强(弱)、蒙古高压偏强(弱)、印度低压偏弱(强)。高原春季积雪与夏季北半球的主要大气活动中心和影响中国夏季气候的主要大气环流系统之间存在紧密联系,当高原春季积雪日数偏多(少)时,夏季500 hPa环流场上东亚地区易(不易)形成阻塞高压,同时西太平洋副热带高压易(不易)偏南。这种关系说明高原春季积雪有一定前兆意义,对中国短期气候预测有重要的指示意义。
唐红玉李锡福李栋梁
关键词:青藏高原
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