Based on normalized six-hourly black body temperature(TBB) data of three geostationary meteorological satellites, the leading modes of the mei-yu cloud system between 1998 and 2008 were extracted by the Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) method, and the transition processes from the first typical leading mode to other leading modes were discussed and compared. The analysis shows that, when the southern mode(EOF1) transforms to the northeastern mode(EOF3), in the mid-troposphere, a low trough develops and moves southeastward over central and eastern China. The circulation pattern is characterized by two highs and one low in the lower troposphere. A belt of low pressure is sandwiched between the weak high over central and western China and the strong western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH). Cold air moves southward along the northerly flow behind the low, and meets the warm and moist air between the WNPSH and the forepart of the low trough, which leads to continuous convection. At the same time, the central extent of the WNPSH increases while its ridge extends westward. In addition, transitions from the southern mode to the dual centers mode and the tropical-low-influenced mode were found to be atypical, and so no common points could be concluded. Furthermore, the choice of threshold value can affect the number of samples discussed.
针对台风业务应用中发现FY-2D和FY-2E双星观测存在亮温差过大的问题,本文以2010年台风鲇鱼(Megi)为例,利用2010年10月17日1030—1230 UTC的FY-2D/E红外1通道数据,提出了双星亮温归一化的解决方法,结果如下:(1)采用CDF(Cumulative Distribution Function)匹配法对双星亮温进行归一化处理,可有效利用FY-2D和FY-2E双星观测结果。个例分析表明,经归一化处理以后,双星的PDF(Probability Distribution Function)分布更趋一致,甚至在很多地方出现重合,归一化效果良好。在台风定强分析,如ADT(Advanced Dvorak Technique)算法中,归一化处理可作为数据预处理的一部分内容,不影响后面的算法和流程。(2)以MTSAT为基准,经CDF匹配法对FY-2D和2E的TBB分别进行归一化处理,将使得FY-2的亮温与MTSAT具有可比性,便于比较国内外的台风定强分析结果和算法差异。
本文主要对近年来利用静止气象卫星监测、分析和研究对流初生的国内外若干研究结果和进展给予了简要综述。主要涉及对流的判识、对流的追踪技术、初生对流的多光谱云顶特征、初生对流的判据和问题与展望等方面的内容。总体而言,利用静止气象卫星监测初生对流,以及发展的对流,是目前国内外研究和探索的热点之一。研究表明,通过精心挑选对对流敏感的光谱通道、通道组合和时间演变判据,可以对初生对流进行监测,可比地面雷达更早地预警降雨系统的发展,显示出在临近预报中的应用潜力。监测对流初生的算法流程大体上分为目标判识、目标追踪和初生对流判识三个部分。国际上主要的一些与对流初生相关的成熟算法各具特色,如RDT(Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms)算法在对流判识中强调了垂直形态的峰值检测,追踪对流时利用了速度外推并检测重叠面积。ForTraCC(Forecasting and Tracking the Evolution of Cloud Clusters)算法关注活跃对流,一定程度上考虑了对流合并和分裂的情况,具有外推预报功能。GOES-R(The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R-Series Program)算法特点是多光谱的使用,利用多光谱判识技术进行对流云顶检测,是面向下一代静止气象卫星探测能力的算法。UWCI(The University of Wisconsin Convective Initiation)构思巧妙,所提出的box-average技术简单易行,适合软件工程化。随着卫星传感器和探测能力的发展,以及计算机技术的快速发展,更多卫星资料将用于联合判识对流。同时,更新的计算机视觉、计算机图像处理和模式识别技术也将用来解决追踪中的复杂问题,进一步改进初生对流的判识准确率。
