目的提高食品安全风险评估精度,构建化学污染物慢性膳食暴露评估全概率模型。方法利用我国膳食调查、污染物监测数据以及相应的人口学资料构建膳食暴露评估全概率模型。通过在消费量和污染物总体中进行蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo)抽样,匹配相乘后得到暴露量的概率分布;构建贝塔二项正态分布(Betabinomial and normal,BBN)模型,将横断面调查获得的短期暴露量近似"拉伸"为长期(慢性)暴露量;通过Monte Carlo模拟和自助法(Bootstrap)对人群膳食暴露量进行变异度和不确定度分析。结果以江苏省居民铅膳食暴露评估为例,构建了化学污染物慢性膳食暴露全概率评估模型。全概率模型和半概率模型比较显示:两种模型计算的暴露量均值接近,但全概率模型计算结果的变异度大于半概率模型,表现为其低端百分位数小于半概率模型,高端百分位数大于半概率模型。结论化学污染物慢性膳食暴露全概率模型评估结果较半概率模型保守。
目的开发基于Android手机/平板的24小时膳食回顾调查软件,为膳食调查数据采集提供新方法。方法基于美国国家健康与营养研究调查(National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey,NHANES)和欧洲癌症与营养前瞻性调查软件(the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Software Program,EPIC-SOFT)开发原理,根据我国24小时膳食回顾调查实际,运用新一代计算机技术开发适合我国国情的24小时膳食回顾调查软件。结果以一万多行代码开发了方便实用具有中国特色的24小时膳食回顾调查软件,实现了24小时膳食回顾调查的电子化操作。结论使用24小时膳食回顾调查软件代替纸质调查问卷,不但可节省时间,减轻调查人员的操作工作量,更重要的是利用先进的计算机技术可提高调查质量。这一技术不但可用于食品安全研究,也可用于营养学调查。
Background By synthesizing results from primary studies,systematic review can provide empirical information of concerned problems.This study aimed to review the available surveillance data from studies reporting the contamination surveillance of food lead in China.Methods Relevant studies were identified by systematically searching Chinese Biological Medicine Database and China National Knowledge Infrastructure using the key term of ＂lead＂ for surveillance data published in Chinese between 2006 and 2012.To avoid potential selection bias,all articles were evaluated by two independent reviewers,and the disagreements were resolved by discussion or the third author was asked to arbitrate.Results Among 269 identified publications on surveillance data of lead in food,43 articles met the defined inclusion criteria.The food samples were divided into 11 groups （cereal grains and pulses,fish,eggs,vegetables,meat,edible fungi,milk and dairy products,fruits,offal,tea and preserved egg）.Surveillance data of publications were reviewed to calculate the weighted mean and rate exceeding maximum levels.Our results indicated that the highest lead concentration was 1.937 mg/kg in tea.The total pementage of samples exceeding the maximum levels was 5.57%.Dietary exposure to lead was assessed by combining the weighted mean concentration of surveillance data with national consumption data in 2002.In this review,dietary intake of lead was 1.232 μg/kg b.w./day.Conclusion Further control measures should be taken to reduce exposure to lead,from both dietary and non-dietary sources.
Jin YingliangLiu PeiWu YongningMin JieWang CannanSun JinfangZhang Yafei
