Using the daily maximum and minimum temperature dataset from 128 stations from 1960 to 2004 in Northwest China,daily extreme high temperature(EHT)and extreme low temperature(ELT)thresholds were deter-mined by centesimal method for different stations at first,then yearly EHT and ELT events were counted up in differ-ent stations,and the characteristics of their spatio-temporal distribution were diagnosed at last.The study drew follow-ing conclusions:1)The consistent anomaly distribution characteristic was the most important mode of the EHT and ELT events in Northwest China.2)The spatial distribution of the EHT and ELT events can be divided into five sub-regions,namely,the north of Qinghai and west of Gansu,the north of Xinjiang,the south of Xinjiang,the east of Northwest China and the south of Qinghai.3)The EHT events showed remarkable increasing trend in all of five sub-regions,but only in the north of Qinghai and west of Gansu area,sudden change phenomenon occurred;the ELT events showed decreasing trend in all of five sub-regions,and sudden change phenomenon occurred in Northwest China except for south of Qinghai.4)In all of five sub-regions the EHT events showed remarkable 12-14yr period os-cillation,and the ELT event showed significant 13-15yr and 7-8yr period oscillation.5)The EHT and ELT events displayed remarkable positive and negative responses to regional warming of Northwest China respectively.
利用中国区域550个站点逐日地面气温及降水资料,评估了参与政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次报告(the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change,IPCCAR4)的13个新一代全球气候系统模式及多模式集合对中国近40 a(1961—2000年)地面气温和降水的模拟能力,结果表明:最新全球模式对中国地区地面气温年变化及空间分布的模拟结果均较好,但在整个模拟区域地面气温模拟值系统性偏低,东部地区模拟效果好于中西部;对于降水,大部分模式能模拟出中国降水的年变化及空间分布特征,但模拟的区域性差别较大,多数模式对中国东部季风区夏季雨带北抬的过程有一定的模拟能力,但模拟雨带位置偏北。新一代全球模式能模拟出温度的线性变化趋势,但对温度及降水的年际变率模拟能力较低。比较多种评估指标得出,模式集合对温度的模拟效果最好,模式UKMO-HadCM3对降水的模拟效果最好。
