Using observational data,the East Asian-North Indian Ocean index(IEANI),which reflects a tropospheric thermal contrast,is found to correlate well with the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) and associated rainfall over eastern China.Corresponding to a higher(lower) IEANI,the EASM at mid-latitudes is stronger(weaker),and there is more(less) rainfall in North China and less(more) rainfall near the Yangtze River valley.To investigate long-term variation in the EASM,we reconstructed the BC 665-AD 1985 IEANI based on reconstructed temperatures in Beijing and Tasmania,Australia.Over the past 2000 years,the reconstructed IEANI generally represents centennial-scale variations in the EASM and rainfall over eastern China.The correlation pattern between the reconstructed IEANI and rainfall over eastern China is similar to modern observations,implying that the correlation feature at centennial scales also occurred over the past 2000 years.With respect to longer-scale(several hundreds to one thousand years) IEANI variations and their correlations with rainfall,further verifications should be performed using various paleoclimatic proxy data.
Forced by transient solar activities since 7 ka,the thermal structures of the Pacific upper water at boreal winter are featured by an enhanced response of 3-dimensional Western Pacific Warm Pool(WPWP) in an Earth system model of Intermediate Complexity at centennial scales.During solar maximum periods,the magnitude of surface ocean temperature variations is 30% larger in the western tropical Pacific than in the Ni o3 region,while at subsurface,it is 40% larger in the subtropical North Pacific than in the western Equatorial Pacific.They compromise stronger zonal and meridional thermal gradients in surface and subsurface Pacific respectively which are both linearly responded to solar forcing at centennial periods.The surface gradient is most sensitive at 208-year period while the subsurface gradient shows more significance at periods longer than 208-year.Also noteworthy are two differences:(1) the phase lags at these periods of surface gradient are slightly smaller than that of subsurface;(2) the 148-year and 102-year periods in surface gradient are lost in subsurface gradient.These modeled features preliminary confirm the centennial fluctuations of WPWP in paleo-proxies and a potential solar forcing during the Holocene.
Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450-1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s, precipitation had a pat- tern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400-1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years, the weakest EASM oc
To study the temporally varying features of summer thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the adjacent ocean on decadal-centennial time scales and the links between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, we used a time series of the reconstructed Asian-Pacific oscillation index and solar irradiance over the past millennium. The results showed that thermal contrast in the Asian monsoon region has quasi-90-year, 10-13-year, and 3-7-year periods. On the centennial time scale, thermal contrast showed three abrupt changes, occurring in 1305-1315, 1420-1430, and 1625-1635. There is a significant positive correlation between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, which is particularly strong at 250-year, 120-160-year, 60-70-year, and quasi-15-year periods. The three abrupt changes in thermal contrast corresponded to a significantly weakening or strengthening of solar irradiance, lagging 12-22 years behind the solar irradiance, which possibly reflects an effect of solar irradiance on the abrupt change in Asian monsoon climate on the centennial time scale. On the decadal time scale, the abrupt change in the thermal contrast was not closely associated with solar irradiance, which implies that solar activity may not be a major factor affecting the decadal abrupt change in Asian-Pacific thermal contrast. Relative to thermal contrast, the decadal abrupt change in Northern Hemispheric annual mean surface temperature is more closely associated with solar activity, while its centennial abrupt change has a weaker relationship with solar
利用观测资料研究发现,东亚-北印度洋对流层热力差异指数(East Asian-North Indian Ocean index,IEANI)与东亚夏季风及相应的中国东部季风降水都具有密切的关系.当IEANI偏高(低)时,东亚中纬度夏季风偏强(弱),华北地区降水偏多(少),江南地区降水偏少(多).为了研究东亚夏季风的长期变化特征,我们利用北京和澳大利亚塔斯曼尼亚地区的重建气温回归了BC665～AD1985年的IEANI.研究发现,在过去2000多年里,重建的IEANI总体上能够指示世纪尺度上的东亚夏季风变化和中国东部降水异常.重建的IEANI与中国东部降水的关系与现代气候所表现出来的关系非常相似,表明这种相关特征也出现在过去2000多年来的世纪尺度上.对于IEANI在更长时间尺度(数百至千年)上的变化特征及其与降水的关系,尚需利用更多类型的代用资料进一步验证.
