The simulations of a heat wave occurring in southern Yangtze-Huaihe valley and southern China during late July,2003 were conducted to examine the sensitivity of simulated surface air temperature(SAT) to different land surface schemes(LSSs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF) Version 2.2 in the short-range mode for 24-h integrations.Initial and boundary conditions employed a National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) analysis.The results showed that,overall,simulated high-temperature weather is sensitive to different LSSs.Large differences in simulated SAT intensity,threat score,and simulated error under different schemes are identified clearly.In addition,some systematic differences are also in-duced by the LSSs.In terms of threat score from the three LSSs,SLAB is the best,and RUC is better than NOAH.SLAB gives the lowest absolute error for area-averaged SAT,and tends to depict the western Pacific subtropical high with the east-ernmost position at low levels.The LSSs modify the simulated SAT,primarily via the transfer of sensible heat from the land surface to the atmosphere.The physical mechanism of the positive feedback between atmospheric circulation and the SAT is unimportant,with"negative"feedback over most of the simulated areas.This study emphasizes the importance of improving LSSs in SAT forecasting by numerical models.
Anthropogenic influences on regional climate and water resources over East Asia are simulated by using a regional model nested to a global model. The changes of land use/land cover （LULC） and CO2 concentration are considered. The results show that variations of LULC and CO2 concentration during the past 130 years caused a warming trend in many regions of East Asia. The most remarkable temperature increase occurred in Inner Mongolia, Northeast and North China, whereas temperature decreased in Gansu Province and north of Sichuan Province. LULC and CO2 changes over the past 130 years resulted in a decreasing trend of precipitation in the Huaihe River valley, Shandong Byland, and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, but precipitation increased along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the middle reaches of the Yellow River, and parts of South China. This pattern of precipitation change with changes in surface evapotranspiration may have caused a more severe drought in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Huaihe River valley. The drought trend, however, weakened in the mid and upper reaches of the Yellow River valley, and the Yangtze River valley floods were increasing. In addition, changes in LULC and CO2 concentration during the past 130 years led to adjustments in the East Asian monsoon circulation, which further affected water vapor transport and budget, making North China warm and dry, the Sichuan basin cold and wet, and East China warm and wet.
A nested-model system is constructed by embedding the regional climate model RegCM3 into a general circulation model for monthly-scale regional climate forecast over East China. The systematic errors are formulated for the region on the basis of 10-yr (1991-2000) results of the nested-model system, and of the datasets of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the temperature analysis of the National Meteorological Center (NMC), U.S.A., which are then used for correcting the original forecast by the system for the period 2001-2005. After the assessment of the original and corrected forecasts for monthly precipitation and surface air temperature, it is found that the corrected forecast is apparently better than the original, suggesting that the approach can be applied for improving monthly-scale regional climate dynamical forecast.
文章利用中尺度模式Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF)3.2.1版本及National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)分析资料,研究了陆面变量(土壤湿度、土壤温度)和陆面参数(植被覆盖率)初始场随机扰动对长江中下游暴雨预报的影响并进行了集合预报试验。试验结果表明,短期暴雨过程对陆面变量(参数)扰动是敏感的;陆面变量(参数)初始场扰动影响降水的时间尺度小于10 h甚至可以小于6 h。从影响机理上来看,陆面变量(参数)扰动首先改变地表的潜热通量和感热通量,而地表通量的改变会通过陆气相互作用对局地大气的温、压、湿、风产生较大影响,从而对暴雨的强度和落区产生较大影响。集合预报结果表明,利用陆面变量(参数)扰动制作集合预报,预报的集合平均结果要好于控制预报的结果,且比集合成员稳定可靠,降水概率预报可以提供一些有用的信息,对预报强降水有一定的指示意义。在初值集合预报中,以这些参数或变量的扰动来引进集合成员是十分有意义的。
