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作品数:5 被引量:192H指数:4
相关作者:赵天保符淙斌郭维栋柯宗建华丽娟更多>>
相关机构:中国科学院大气物理研究所中国气象局国家气候中心中国科学院研究生院更多>>
发文基金:国家自然科学基金国家重点基础研究发展计划中国科学院知识创新工程更多>>
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全球大气再分析资料的研究现状与进展被引量:121
2010年
在过去十多年,利用资料同化技术再分析过去的气象观测资料,重建高时空分辨率的格点历史气候数据集取得了长足发展。再分析资料的问世为人们深入了解大气运动的方式、认识不同时空尺度内气候变化和变率提供了强有力的、甚至不可替代的研究工具。就当前国际上一些主要的全球大气再分析资料研究计划及其产品的概况、再分析资料在大气科学及其相关研究领域中的应用、再分析资料的评估及其在气候变化研究中存在的一些主要质量问题做了回顾与介绍,并就未来大气再分析资料研究计划的一些发展趋势予以展望。
赵天保符淙斌柯宗建郭维栋
关键词:再分析资料气候变化
几种再分析地表气压资料在中国区域的适用性评估被引量:20
2009年
应用台站观测资料对ERA-40,NCEP/NCAR以及NCEP/DOE再分析地表气压产品在中国不同区域、不同年代和不同季节的适用性进行了评估。分析发现,几种再分析产品虽然能在一定程度上反映出观测资料所具有的时空分布特征,但它们之间的差异却具有明显的区域和季节变化特征,即冬季小而夏季大、东部地区小而西部地区大;同时还发现ERA-40和NCEP/NCAR再分析产品在20世纪70年代以前均与观测资料有相对较大的差别,特别是NCEP/NCAR在70年代以前的夏季气压值过于偏低,从而夸大了很多地区的年代际变化特征。相比而言,ERA-40地表气压的长期变化趋势以及时空演变规律在中国大多数地区要优于NCEP/NCAR再分析产品,特别是在中国西部地区。分析还表明,NCEP/DOE虽与观测资料存在一定的系统性偏差,却与另外两种再分析产品有着较为相似的年际变化特征及趋势。
赵天保华丽娟
关键词:再分析资料
Intercomparison of the Summertime Subtropical High from the ERA-40 and over East Eurasia and the western North Pacific被引量:6
2009年
An intercomparison of summertime (JJA)subtropical geopotential heights from the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is specifically conducted over East Eurasia and the western North Pacific. The NCEP/NCAR is obviously lower than the ERA-40 in the mid-to-lower troposphere in most regions of East Eurasia before the mid-1970s, but becomes higher than the ERA-40 after the mid-1970s and thus demonstrates stronger increased trends during the period of 1958-2001. Both reanalyses are lower than the observations in most regions of China. The NCEP/NCAR especially shows tremendously systematic lower values before the mid-1960s and displays abrupt changes before the 1970s. Several indices of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), calculated from both reanalyzed summer geopotential heights, also reveal that the variation trend of the NCEP/NCAR is stronger than that of the ERA-40 in the mid-to-lower troposphere from 1958 to 2001. Through singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis, the summer geopotential heights at 500 hPa from the ERA-40 are better than the NCEP/NCAR counterparts at interacting with the precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region. The results indicate that the NCEP/NCAR in the mid-and-lower troposphere may overestimate interdecadal changes and should be used cautiously to study the relationship between the WNPSH and precipitation ove ther East Asia Monsoon region before the mid-1970s.
赵天保符淙斌
关键词:REANALYSIS
Can Artificial Climate Trends in Global Reanalysis be Reduced by Dynamical Downscaling:A Case Study of China被引量:2
2011年
In this study,the ability of dynamical downscaling for reduction of artificial climate trends in global reanalysis is tested in China.Dynamical downscaling is performed using a 60-km horizontal resolution Regional Integrated Environmental Model System (RIEMS) forced by the NCEP-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis II (NCEP-2).The results show that this regional climate model (RCM) can not only produce dynamically consistent fine scale fields of atmosphere and land surface in the regional domain,but it also has the ability to minimize artificial climate trends existing in the global reanalysis to a certain extent.As compared to the observed 2-meter temperature anomaly averaged across China,our model can simulate the observed inter-annual variation and variability as well as reduce artificial climate trends in the reanalysis by approximately 0.10 C decade 1 from 1980 to 2007.The RIEMS can effectively reduce artificial trends in global reanalysis for areas in western China,especially for regions with high altitude mountains and deserts,as well as introduce some new spurious changes in other local regions.The model simulations overestimated observed winter trends for most areas in eastern China with the exception of the Tibetan Plateau,and it greatly overestimated observed summer trends in the Sichuan Basin located in southwest China.This implies that the dynamical downscaling of RCM for long-term trends has certain seasonal and regional dependencies due to imperfect physical processes and parameterizations.
ZHAO Tian-Bao ZHAO De-Ming
关键词:气候趋势降尺度区域气候模型
几种再分析地表气温资料在中国区域的适用性评估被引量:74
2009年
应用台站观测资料对ERA-40、NCEP/NCAR、NCEP/DOE和JRA-25等几种再分析地表(2m)气温资料在中国不同区域、不同年代和季节的气候均值、年际变化和变率特征及其气候趋势等所反映出来的适用性问题进行了系统评估。结果表明,几种再分析产品在全国大多数地区的气候变化研究中都具有一定的合理性,特别是1979年以后的资料可靠性更高一些。但相比而言,它们在冬季的可信度一般要高于夏季,东部地区的可信度一般要高于西部地区;ERA-40和JRA-25再分析产品的适用性要高于NCEP/NCAR和NCEP/DOE再分析产品;其中,JRA-25在均值、年际变化和变率特征的描述上具有更高的可靠性,而ERA-40在长期气候变化趋势(44年)的描述上则要明显优于NCEP/NCAR再分析产品。
赵天保符淙斌
关键词:地表气温再分析资料
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