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国家自然科学基金(40805039)

作品数:7 被引量:38H指数:3
相关作者:李艳陈鲜艳张倩倩王志福董新宁更多>>
相关机构:南京信息工程大学中国气象局国家气候中心重庆市气候中心更多>>
发文基金:国家自然科学基金重庆市气象局开放式研究基金中国博士后科学基金更多>>
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7 条 记 录,以下是 1-7
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三峡下垫面变化对区域气候效应的影响研究被引量:17
2011年
利用中尺度数值天气预报模式(WRF),通过控制试验与改变三峡库区水体结构的理想试验,分析了三峡库区蓄水后可能引起的区域气候效应.研究结果标明:针对三峡库区气候特征的再现能力分析发现逐月模拟实验优于逐日模拟实验;三峡大坝的水体扩展引起了库区区域气候的较弱变化,平均气温与平均风速的变化较小,仅在狭窄的三峡水道上出现了弱的气温升高与风速增大的现象,变化幅度分别为0.5℃~1.5℃、0.1~1m/s;三峡库区水体面积扩大后引起了库区北部部分地区的降水增加,这主要是由于下垫面的变化与局地特殊地形相耦引起了水汽与风场的变化,从而影响了降水量的变化.三峡工程引起的气候变化主要表现在近地层,越往高层影响越小,对850hPa及以上高度层几乎没有影响.
李艳高阳华陈鲜艳杜钦
关键词:气候效应下垫面变化
我国近地层风能资源气候变化之未来情景预测被引量:4
2011年
利用全国600多个地面站40年的常规风速观测资料以及IPCC AR4的20C3M与SRES A2温室气体排放情景的实验与预测结果,对比选取了能够合理再现我国近地层风能资源主要分布特征的9个气候耦合模式,采用PLS线性多元回归方法建立的多模式集合模型,预测了我国近地层风能资源在21世纪的分布特征及气候变化特点。分析结果表明:未来我国陆域近地层风能资源的空间分布特征与20世纪后40年基本相同,但气候变化趋势存在较大差异;区域年平均风速在21世纪前半叶存在减弱趋势,但后半叶以增强趋势为主。
李艳汤剑平王元储惠芸
关键词:风能资源情景预测IPCC
1961—2012年重庆市的降水特征分析被引量:9
2016年
利用重庆市1961—2012年34个气象观测站的逐日降水资料,采用EOF分析、线性回归及相关分析的方法对重庆市的降水量时空特征、降水频数特征及降水强度特征进行诊断分析研究,并进行了相关讨论.结果表明:重庆市的年总降水量呈逐年减少的变化特征,并且年总降水量存在空间一致性与重庆市东北地区和其他地区反相变化的空间分布形式;各类持续性降水过程频数的空间分布差异较大,持续性降水过程频数的变化趋势表明短期降水过程(持续2 d)逐年增加而持续较长时间(持续5 d及以上)的连阴雨天气过程减少趋势明显;降水强度分析中发现一般降水(小雨、中雨、大雨)的年总降水量呈下降趋势,是引起重庆市年总降水量减少的主要原因,小雨、中雨降水强度逐年减弱而大雨的强度有弱的增强,较强降水等级(暴雨与大暴雨)的年总降水量呈较弱的上升趋势,降水强度也表现为弱的增强趋势;持续5 d及以上降水过程频数的减少可能与当地500 h Pa位势高度场的上升及赤道太平洋海表温度的升高相关,大雨及以上等级降水的强度变化可能与El Nio Modoki现象有关.
张倩倩李艳王志福董新宁
关键词:降水强度
大渡河流域水电开发对区域气候的可能影响被引量:3
2017年
利用WRF中尺度天气预报模式,从拓宽大渡河整个干流的水体分布与改变单一水库(瀑布沟水电站水库)的水体覆盖两个角度,对比分析下垫面水体变化对区域气候的可能影响。结果表明:整个干流水体变化和瀑布沟水库水体加宽后所产生的气候效应类似,均表现为对水体附近区域的局地影响。年平均气温在水体附近区域下降0.2~0.4℃,冬季平均气温小幅升高,春季、夏季和秋季的平均气温降低;冬季、春季和秋季的降水量变化不明显,在河流两岸的年平均降水量、夏季降水量有所减少;相对湿度在水体区域微弱增加,平均风速变化不大。
李艳张倩倩陈鲜艳
关键词:水电站
SIMULATION OF SUMMER CLIMATE IN CHINA DURING 1997 AND 1998 USING A REGIONAL AIR-SEA COUPLED MODEL被引量:1
2013年
Using the regional air-sea coupled climate model RegCM3-POM,a series of numerical experiments are performed to simulate the summer climate in 1997 and 1998 with different coupling time steps.The results show that the coupled model has good performance on the simulation of the summer sea surface temperature(SST) in 1997 and 1998,and the simulation results of CPL1(with the coupling time step at 1 hour) are similar to those of CPL6(with the coupling time step at 6 hours).The coupled model can well simulate SST differences between 1997 and 1998.As for the simulation of the drought in 1997 and the flood in 1998,the results of CPL6 are more accurate.The coupled model can well simulate the drought in 1997 over North China,and compared with the results of the atmosphere model RegCM3,the simulation ability of the coupled model is improved.The coupling model has better ability in the simulation of the circulation in the middle and low levels,and the water vapor transportation in the coupling model is reasonable in both 1997 and 1998.RegCM3(an uncoupled model) cannot correctly simulate the transportation path differences between 1997 and 1998,but the coupled model can simulate the differences well.
姚素香黄乾张耀存
关键词:REGIONALAIR-SEACOUPLEDPRECIPITATIONNUMERICALSIMULATION
Influences of the Three Gorges Dam in China on Precipitation over Surrounding Regions被引量:2
2017年
Impacts of the Three Gorges Dam(TGD) in China on the regional pattern and annual amount of precipitation around the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR) are examined by comparing observations before and after the operation of TGD(1984–2003 and 2004–13). Empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis of the annual precipitation anomalies clearly indicates that the land-use change associated with the construction of TGD has not significantly changed the precipitation pattern. To investigate the impacts of TGD on the rainfall amount, we compare the relative variations of atmospheric variables related to precipitation formation in three spatial bands: over TGR, near TGR, and far from TGR. It is found that the differences in annual rainfall over TGD between the two periods before and after the operation of TGD are small, suggesting a weak impact of TGD on the rainfall amount. The TGD water level increased from 66 m before June 2003 to 175 m after 2010, and this may have slightly reduced precipitation on the local scale.
Yan LIWeican ZHOUXianyan CHENDexian FANGQianqian ZHANG
关键词:PRECIPITATION
A STUDY ON RESPONSE OF PRECIPITATION IN CHINA TO MONSOON INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION被引量:2
2012年
Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the 30-60 day oscillation (intraseasonal oscillation, ISO) of summer rainfall in China and the effects of East Asian monsoon on the rainfall ISO are analyzed in this paper. Results show that the annual and decadal variations of the oscillation exist between 1960 and 2008, and the intensity is weakest in the late 1970s and early 1980s. In the typical strong years of the rainfall ISO obtained from empirical orthogonal functions (EOF mode 1), an anticyclone is in northwestern Pacific and a cyclone is in the east of China. In the typical weak years, the wind ISO is much weaker. The low-frequency zonal wind and water vapor transport from the low latitudes to mid-latitudes in the typical strong years, and the oscillation strength of diabatic heating is much stronger than that in the weak years of the rainfall ISO. The anomaly characteristics of the rainfall ISO show anti-phases between the Yangtze River basin and south of China. As for the typical strong years of the rainfall ISO in the Yangtze River basin (EOF mode 2), the main oscillation center of water vapor is in the east of China (20-30°N, 110-130°E). In the peak (break) phase of the rainfall oscillation, a low-frequency cyclone (anticyclone) is in the Yangtze River basin and an anticyclone (cyclone) is near Taiwan Island. In addition, the peak rainfall corresponds to the heat source in the Yangtze River basin and the heat sink in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. As for the typical strong years of the rainfall ISO in the south of China, the main oscillation center of water vapor is south of 20°N. In the peak (break) phase of the rainfall ISO, a low-frequency cyclone (anticyclone) is in the south of China and an anticyclone (cyclone) is in the Philippines. The peak rainfall corresponds to the heat source in the south of China and the South China Sea, and the heat sink in the west of Indochina.
姚素香黄乾张耀存况雪源
关键词:热带气象气象学天气学气团
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