Based on customhouse statistics of twenty-nine partners,trade misinvoicing for China is estimated in this paper.It is verified in events analysis that the indication of the estimations tracks the economic reform of China.It is indicated that the main channel for capital fight from China is export under-invoicing and import over-invoicing in 28 bilateral trades other than Hong Kong,while the import under-inwuing in the bilateral trades to Hong Kong results in a considerable illegal inflow of international portfolio capital.It is implied by the analysis that existent supervision of foreign trade is the shortage of capital control,and a reinforced custom system is the compensation for the national capital control system.
在商业银行信贷风险计量模型中,均值—方差模型可用于对信贷资产价值的波动趋势和方向的计量,;V aR:CreditM etrics模型能够相对准确地计量出信贷资产价值的波动程度,它既可以计量一种信贷资产的风险度,亦可计量多种信贷资产的组合风险度,具有较强的可操作性;K M V模型只有在计量样本数足够多的信贷资产组合的价值波动程度的时候,才比较准确和可行。
