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作品数:4 被引量:115H指数:3
相关作者:郭建平程勇翔黄敬峰赵艳霞王秀珍更多>>
相关机构:杭州师范大学石河子大学中国气象科学研究院更多>>
发文基金:国家教育部博士点基金国家自然科学基金国家科技支撑计划更多>>
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中国南方双季稻春季冷害动态监测被引量:10
2014年
[目的]利用星地多源数据,在南方双季稻种植区空间信息提取、双季稻发育期动态图组制作及研究区逐日平均温度反演的基础上,结合冷害监测指标,实现多要素相协同的南方双季稻春季冷害动态监测,为农业部门及时准确地应对双季稻冷害,减少冷害损失提供技术支持。[方法]利用南方双季稻区190个气象站点1951—2011年逐日气温数据,计算各站点≥10℃的多年平均积温。根据各站点多年平均积温与其地理因子的相关关系,建立多年平均积温推算模型。通过所获模型得到研究区积温空间分布图。按照南方双季稻安全生产积温阈值≥5 300℃·d的指标,扣除研究区内积温小于该值的区域,制作南方双季稻积温区划图。利用MODIS MCD12Q1分类产品获取了2001—2010年10年的谷类作物分布图。将以上两步结果叠加求交集,提取南方双季稻种植区空间信息;利用南方双季稻区167个农业试验观测站点1981—2011年的水稻发育期资料,计算各个站点双季早稻主要发育期出现的多年平均日期。依据发育期多年平均日期与地理因子的相关性,获取各主要发育期回归拟合分布图。在拟合结果残差订正的基础上,将南方双季稻春季冷害重点监测时段前后两幅发育期静态图,通过EVNI+IDL编程,制作双季早稻发育期动态图;利用AMSR_E_L2A 89 GHz升轨和降轨垂直极化亮温、地理因子与气象站日平均气温建立多元混合回归拟合模型,通过所获模型反演研究区2010年2—5月逐日平均气温。[结果]对研究所建多年平均积温推算模型,利用未参与建模的90个气象站观测数据进行验证,观测值与模型模拟结果之间的均方根误差(RMSE)为289℃,这一估测精度能够满足研究所需。双季稻积温区划与MODIS土地利用分类结果叠加求交集,提取的双季稻种植区面积占研究区总面积的29.26%。通过该步骤一方面提升了双季稻冷害监测结果�
程勇翔王秀珍郭建平赵艳霞黄敬峰
关键词:双季稻动态监测
Cold Damage Risk Assessment of Double Cropping Rice in Hunan, China被引量:15
2013年
Combined with remote sensing data and meteorological data, cold damage risk was assessed for planting area of double cropping rice (DCR) in Hunan Province, China. A new methodology of cold damage risk assessment was built that apply to grid and have clear hazard-affected body. Each station cold damage annual frequency and average annual intensity of cold damage was calculated by using 1951-2010 station daily mean temperature and simple cold damage identification index. On this basis, average annual cold damage risk index was obtained by their product. The spatial analysis models of cold damage risk index about double-season early rice (DSER) and double-season later rice (DSLR) were established respectively by the relation of average annual cold damage risk index and its geographic factors. Critical threshold of level of average annual cold damage risk index for DSER and DSLR were respectively divided by the correlative equation of cold damage annual frequency and average annual intensity of cold damage. 2001-2010 planting area of DCR, acquired by time series analysis of MOD09A1 8-d composite land surface reflectance product, was as target of assessment. The results show average annual intensity of cold damage is exponential function of cold damage annual frequency, average annual cold damage risk index is directly proportional to cold damage cumulant and cold damage annual frequency, and is inversely proportional to happen times of cold damage and the square of statistical time sequence length. Cold damage risk of DSER is higher than DSLR in Hunan Province. In the 10-yr stacking map, DCR planting in low risk area accounted for 11.92% of total extraction area, in moderate risk area accounted for 69.62%, in high risk area accounted for 18.46%. According to the cold damage risk assessment result, DCR production can be guided to reduce cold damage losses.
CHENG Yong-xiangHUANG Jing-fengHAN Zhong-lingGUO Jian-pingZHAO Yan-xiaWANG Xiu-zhenGUO Rui-fang
关键词:低温冷害双季水稻日平均气温时间序列分析
GIS-Based Risk Assessment and Regionalization of Drought Hazards in China被引量:1
2012年
Based on the monthly precipitation (1960-2009) of China and associated regional socio-economic data, the spatial and temporal pattern of drought in China was assessed by applying a conceptual framework of disaster system theory, which used the hazard and vulnerability as two variables to define the risk of drought. Sichuan province suffered from the severe risk of drought, while Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou provinces, and Chongqing city could be classified as the moderate drought risk area of China. Additionally, Tibet plateau in the Northwest of China had the lowest risk of drought. The integrated data from this result provided the valuable information to cope with the drought in respect of optimization utilization of land resources at the regional scale.
张峰黄敬峰张丽文王秀珍
关键词:DROUGHTHAZARDVULNERABILITY
中国水稻生产的时空动态分析被引量:91
2012年
【目的】绘制中国南北稻区不同稻作制度下的水稻播种面积和产量重心变动图,分析成因,找出影响现阶段中国水稻总产稳定的关键因素。【方法】利用重心拟合模型对水稻生产的时空动态进行分析,敏感性分析方法找出该变动背景下影响中国水稻总产稳定的关键因素。【结果】新中国成立以来除20世纪60、70年代中国水稻播种面积重心和产量重心向东南和东部发生偏移以外,总体上向东北方向移动。1979—2009年北方稻重心由华北快速移动到了东北松辽盆地。中稻和一季晚稻重心移动方向为先东北后东南与南方稻作制度"双改单"变化顺序由北向南相吻合。早稻和双季晚稻重心移动方向都为西南。南方稻区单季稻比例明显上升,"双改单"现象明显,这是导致中国水稻种植面积下降的主要原因。结合敏感性分析得出播种面积已成为目前最有可能造成中国水稻总产量大幅下滑的关键因素。【结论】市场机制的调控和技术进步是目前影响中国水稻时空变动的两个主要因素。在继续坚持以市场为指导的前提下,依据国情从粮食安全的角度出发,重点对面积呈下滑趋势的早稻和双季晚稻进行调控,同时兼顾水稻总面积,防止其出现较大波动,努力提高水稻单产,是确保现阶段中国水稻总产稳中有升的关键。
程勇翔王秀珍郭建平赵艳霞黄敬峰
关键词:水稻
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