Climate change has substantially impacted crop growth and development in the northern agro-pastoral transitional zone. Examination of the response of crop water consumption to climate change may provide a guide for adapting local agricultural production and ecological construction to new realities. The water consumption of three local crops （wheat, naked oats, and potatoes） is examined for Wuchuan County in the northern agro-pastoral transitional zone of China using meteorological data from 1960 to 2007 and soil moisture data from 1983 to 2007. The relationships between climate change and the crop water consumption are discussed. The results show that Wuchuan experienced both a warming trend and a reduction of precipitation between 1960 and 2007. The annual mean surface air temperature increased at a rate of 0.04℃ yr-1 and the annual precipitation decreased at a rate of 0.7 mm yr-1 . Both trends are particularly pronounced between 1983 and 2007, with an increase in annual mean temperature of 0.09℃ yr-1 and a decrease in annual mean precipitation of 2.1 mm yr-1 . Crop water consumption decreased between 1983 and 2007 for wheat （1.65 mm yr-1 ）, naked oats （2.04 mm yr-1 ）, and potatoes （3.85 mm yr-1 ）. Potatoes and naked oats consume more water than wheat. Climate change has significantly impacted crop water consumption. Water consumption and rainfall during the growing season are positively correlated, while water consumption and active accumulated temperature are negatively correlated. Compared to precipitation, accumulated temperature has little impact on crop water consumption. Recent climate change has been detrimental for crop production in Wuchuan County. Adaptation to climate change should include efforts to breed drought-resistant crops and to develop drought-resistant cultivation techniques.
Long-term field monitoring data and historical crop data are useful to assess the impacts of climate change and to manage cropping systems. The objectives of this study are to understand the cropping system response to a warming-drying trend in the northern agro-pastural ecotone （NAE） of China and to document how farmers can adapt to the warming-drying trend by changing cropping system structure and adjusting planting date. The results indicate that a significant warming-drying trend existed in the NAE from 1980 to 2009, and this trend significantly decreased crop （spring wheat, naked oat, and potato） yields. Furthermore, the yield decreased by 16.2%-28.4% with a 1℃ increase in maximum temperature and decreased by 6.6%-11.8% with a 10% decrease in precipitation. Considering food security, water use efficiency, and water ecological adaptability in the semi-arid NAE, cropping system structure adjustment （e.g., a shift from wheat to potato as the predominant crop） and planting date adaptation （e.g., a delay in crop planting date） can offset the impact of the warming-drying trend in the NAE. Based on the successful offsetting of the impact of the warming-drying trend in the NAE, we conclude that farmers can reduce the negative effects of climate change and minimize the risk of crop failure by adapting their cropping system structure at the farming level.
